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                         REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE                                                                                               0MB No. 0704-0188
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  1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank)                      ~.• REPORT DATE                              3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED
                                           .               eptember 10, 1996                       1 Final
  4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE                                                                                                             5. FUNDING NUMBERS
 f.1odeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Galculations                                                                       C: F04703-91-C-o112
                                                                                                                                       TA:10/95-TT
  6. AUTHORW                •
 James A. ard, Jr.
 Robert M. Montgomery
  7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)                                                                               8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION
                                                                                                                                      REPORT NUMBER
  Research Triangle Institute *                                  ACTA, Inc. **
113000 N. Atlantic Avenue                                      · Skypark3                                                              RTl/5180m-43F
  Cocoa Beach, FL 32931                                          23430 Hawthorne Blvd., Suite 300
                                                                 Torrance, CA 90505
 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)                                                                           10. SPONSORING/ MONITORING
                                                                                                                                       AGENCY REPORT NUMBER
  Department of the Air Force (AFSPC)                            Department of the Air Force (AFSPC)
  30th Space Wing                                                45th Space Wing                                                  r\~'1~.1
                                                                                                                                   -        -           -m.-t1<a-a
  Vandenberg AFB, CA 93437                                       Patrick AFB, FL 32925
 -Mr. Martin Kinna (30 SW/SEY)                                   Louis J. Ullian, Jr. (45 SW/SED)
 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
 * Subcontractor
 " Prime Contractor
 12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT                                                                                          12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE
 Distribution authorized to US Government agencies and their contractors to protect
 administrative/operational use data; 10 September 96. Other requests for this document shall
 be referred to the 30th Space Wing (AFSPC) Safety Office (30 SW/SE),Vandenberg AFB, CA
 93437, or 45th Space Wing (AFSPC) Safety Office (45 SW/SE), Patrick AFB, FL 32925.                                                                (!__,
 13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words)
 Missile and space-vehicle performance histories contain many examples of failures that cause, or have the
 potential to cause, significant vehicle deviations from the intended flight line. In RTl's risk-analysis program,
 DAMP, such failures are referred to as Mode-5 failure responses. Although Mode--5 failure responses are much
 less likely to occur than those that result in impacts near the flight line, risk-analysis studies are incomplete without
 them. This report shows how Impacts from Mode-6 failures are modeled in program DAMP. The impact density
 function used for this purpose contains two shaping constants that control the rate at which the density function
 drops In value as the angular deviation from the flight line and the impact range increase. Certain Mode--5
•malfunctions are simulated, and the two shaping constants then chosen by trial and error so that impacts from the
 simulated malfunctions and the theoretical density function are in close agreement. An appendix to the report
 contains alisting and brief narrative failure history of the A~as, Delta, and Titan missile and space-vehicle launches
 from the Eastern and Western Ranges from the beginning of each program through August 1996. Each entry
 gives the vehicle configuration, whether the flight was asuccess, the flight phase in which any anomalous behavior
 occurred, and aclassification of vehicl~ behavior in accordance with defined failure-response modes.
 14. SUBJECT TERMS                                                                                                                              15. NUMBER OF PAGES·
 launch risk, unlikely failure modeling, booster failure probabilities                                                                            180
                                                                                                                                                16. PRICE CODE

 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION                    18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION                     19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION                     20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT
     OF REPORT                                      OF THIS PAGE                                    OF ABSTRACT
 Unclassified                                  lJnclassified                                   lnclasslfled                                       SAR
 NSN 7540-01-280-5500                                                                                                                       Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89)
                                                                                                                                            Prescribed by AIIISI Std. Z39-18
                                                                                                                                            298·102